Trendline Break
A trendline is a line drawn by connecting a series of highs or lows on a chart to identify the overall direction of the market. A trendline breakout occurs when the price moves above or below this line, indicating a potential change in the trend. An upward breakout above a resistance trendline signals a bullish shift, suggesting that buyers are overpowering sellers. Conversely, a downward breakout below a support trendline implies a bearish shift, indicating that sellers are dominating. The significance of a trendline breakout depends on the slope of the trendline, the length of time it has been in place, and the accompanying trading volume.
Across 1091 scored detections, the Trendline Break moved the way it predicts relative to SPY 45% of the time over the next 20 trading days, with a mean excess return of -0.57%. A coin flip scores about 50%.
87 symbols in our coverage universe have a recorded Trendline Break detection history. UVXY has formed it most often — 31 times.
How has this setup performed historically?
| Window | Occurrences | Win rate vs SPY | Mean excess return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days | 1521 | 53% | 0.43% |
| 20 days | 1091 | 45% | -0.57% |
| 60 days | 802 | 40% | -1.82% |
20-day figures: 1,091 settled signals detected from 2026-02-13, scored through 2026-10-29; 576 more still inside the window. Every one is listed in the track record.
Win rate = share of occurrences where the stock beat SPY over the window in the direction the signal predicted — for a bearish setup, a win means it underperformed. Measured on our own detections, which puts the coin-flip line at 50%. Sample sizes are small; treat these as context, not as an edge.
US stocks that have formed the Trendline Break most often
Counts are past detections by our scanner, not signals firing today. Follow a symbol through to its own page for the current reading.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the success rate of the Trendline Break pattern?
- Across 1091 scored detections, the Trendline Break moved the way it predicts relative to SPY 45% of the time over the next 20 trading days, with a mean excess return of -0.57%. A coin flip scores about 50%.
Further reading
Other patterns
Pattern Vista is a technical-analysis research tool. Everything on this page is automated pattern detection and historical statistics published for educational purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and past performance does not indicate future results. Full disclaimer